International Union For Conservation Of Nature Research Articles

Expert‐based range maps cannot be replicated using data‐driven methods but macroecological conclusions arising from them can

AbstractAimAnswering many fundamental and applied scientific questions relies on accurate geographic range maps for species, such as those compiled by experts working with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). However, these maps are resource demanding to produce and only available for a limited number of organisms. Here, we test to what extent standardized, data‐driven methods based on publicly available occurrences can reproduce expert‐based IUCN range maps and the macroecological conclusions drawn from them.LocationGlobal.Time PeriodPresent.TaxaBirds.Materials and MethodsWe estimated the geographic ranges for 7385 non‐marine bird species which either were non‐migratory or had spatially connected breeding and wintering ranges from publicly available, georeferenced point occurrences. We then quantified the spatial overlap between these range estimates and the IUCN expert‐derived range estimates. Finally, we compared global species richness patterns and the environmental correlates that emerge from both approaches.ResultsWe find that range estimates based on point occurrence records overlap on average 52% with expert range estimates for the same species. The global species richness patterns estimated under both approaches are overall similar but show local and regional differences, for example, in the tropical Andes of northern South America and the Central Arc region of Africa. The estimated global drivers of richness are similar.Main ConclusionsExpert‐derived estimates of species distributions are not reproducible by data‐driven approaches relying on currently available public records, even for well‐documented taxa such as birds. However, these discrepancies do not substantially change our macroecological understanding of global drivers of bird diversity.

Estimating species distribution from camera trap by‐catch data, using jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) as an example

AbstractAimPlanning conservation action requires accurate estimates of abundance and distribution of the target species. For many mammals, particularly those inhabiting tropical forests, there are insufficient data to assess their conservation status. We present a framework for predicting species distribution using jaguarundi (Herpailurus yagouaroundi), a poorly known felid for which basic information on abundance and distribution is lacking.LocationMesoamerica and South America.Time PeriodFrom 2003 to 2021.Taxa Herpailurus yagouaroundi. MethodsWe combined camera‐trap data from multiple sites and used an occupancy modelling framework accounting for imperfect detection to identify habitat associations and predict the range‐wide distribution of jaguarundis.ResultsOur model predicted that the probability of jaguarundi occupancy is positively associated with rugged terrain, herbaceous cover, and human night‐time light intensity. Jaguarundi occupancy was predicted to be higher where precipitation was less seasonal, and at intermediate levels of diurnal temperature range. Our camera data also revealed additional detections of jaguarundis beyond the current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range distribution, including the Andean foothills of Colombia and Bolivia.Main ConclusionOccupancy was predicted to be low throughout much of Amazonian lowlands, a vast area at the centre of jaguarundi known range. Further work is required to investigate whether this area represents sub‐optimal conditions for the species. Overall, we estimate a crude global jaguarundi population of 35,000 to 230,000 individuals, covering 4,453,406 km2 of Meso‐ and South America at the 0.5 probability level of occupancy. Our current framework allows for an initially detailed, well‐informed species distribution that should be challenged and refined with improved habitat layers and additional records of jaguarundi detection. We encourage similar studies of lesser‐known mammals, pooling existing by‐catch data from the growing bank of camera‐trap surveys around the world.

Taxonomic & biological annotations on six endangered shark species found in the landings at Karachi Fish Harbour with reference to some conservation strategy measures

Identification based on taxonomy of six (6) shark species that have been occasionally seen in the landings of Karachi Fish Harbour (KFH) was carried out in this study. Between 2014 and 2023, field and laboratory observations were made in five different surveys. These uncommon shark species were identified as Carcharhinus amblyrhynchus, C. amboinensis, C.hemiodon, C. longimanus, C. macloti and Stegostoma fasciatum. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) have described these species of sharks as endangered, data deficient, critically endangered and near threatened species respectively in their Red List 2022. These species are being captured and sold for markets connected to domestic and international commerce or export procedures, despite the fact that they are endangered and on the verge of extinction. Regrettably, the main reasons for this out-of-control situation and the extinction of these protected species are the local fishermen's misunderstanding of the laws and the inadequate monitoring provided by higher authorities

Mammal recovery inside and outside terrestrial protected areas.

Protected areas are a key component of global conservation, and the world is aiming to increase protected areas to cover 30% of land and water through the 30 × 30 Initiative under the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. However, factors affecting their success or failure in regard to promoting mammal population recovery are not well studied, particularly using quantitative approaches comparing across diverse taxa, biomes, and countries. To better understand how protected areas contribute to mammalian recovery, we conducted an analysis of 2706 mammal populations both inside and outside of protected areas worldwide. We calculated the annual percent change of mammal populations withinand outside of terrestrial protected areas and examined the relationship between the percent change and a suite of human and natural characteristics including biome, region, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) protected area category, IUCN Red List classification, and taxonomic order. Our results show that overall mammal populations inside and outside of protected areas are relatively stable. It appears that Threatened mammals are doing better inside of protected areas than outside, whereas the opposite is true for species of least concern and Near Threatened species. We also found significant population increases in protected areas classified as category III and significant population decreases in protected and unprotected areas throughout Oceania. Our results demonstrate that terrestrial protected areas can be an important approach for mammalian recovery and conservation.

The Complexities of SDGs Goal 5 and 13 in ASEAN Region: A Comparative Study between Balinese and Cambodian Women Campaign on Climate Action

Women tend to be objects and victims of climate change impact. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 2020 found that gender-based violence was aligned with climate and environmental crises in various developing countries. In addition, 9.9 women were affected heavily by natural disasters in Indonesia (BPS, 2017). Meanwhile, only 20% of women's leadership constitutes the entire energy sector (WEF, 2022). Another important statement from the IPCC (2022) said that women (particularly pregnant women) became highly impacted by the climate crisis. The Assessment Report on the State of Gender Equality and Climate Change in ASEAN (2022) built evidence on the importance of recognising women’s roles in climate action in ASEAN countries. In light of this background, this paper will analyse the critical complexities of ASEAN women's leadership towards climate action in order to evaluating the implementation of SDGs goal 5 and 13. To have further deep analysis, this paper will explore the case study of Balinese and Cambodian women who have best practices of climate action, locally, nationally and globally, which also enhance ASEAN countries' commitment to SDGs. Some of the best practices in Cambodia include a Renewable Energy (RE) programme that actively engages with and promotes women-led energy enterprises by implementing “The Smoke-Free Village” approach and training women as champions for gender-transformative Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Meanwhile, in Bali, Balinese women play an important role in climate action by establishing the Bali Women Climate Entrepreneur Project which encourages 10 start-ups to join the program and many other best practices to be explored further. As a methodology, the best practices of women leadership in both countries will be collected through literature reviews, interviews, statistics from the Balinese and Cambodia government/SDGs centres, and other relevant documents’ review. From those sources, this paper is expected to be the guide to mapping women leadership in climate action and also become a guide on how to develop effective communication for women in the ASEAN region on climate change.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List does not account for intraspecific diversity

Abstract The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List identifies threatened and endangered species and is a key instrument in global biodiversity conservation efforts. Our understanding of the structure and value of genetic biodiversity below the species level is rapidly increasing. Nonetheless, the IUCN assessment criteria overlook genetic variation within species. Here, we address this blind spot and discuss the principles of species conservation status classification relative to intraspecific biodiversity. We focus on coastal species, which thrive in heterogeneous environments known to drive genetic differentiation. The focal example species, Atlantic cod and sugar kelp, have contrasting life histories, are ecologically and economically important constituents of the coastal ecosystem, and are currently not classified as threatened in Norway and Canada. We expose important variation in population structure, the presence of ecotypes and genetic-environment covariation, as well as loss of ecotypes that threatens the conservation of these species. Because the genetic makeup of species directly influences their resilience, omitting this information from conservation status assessments can result in loss of adaptive capacity to future stressors, such as climate change. Consequently, recognizing and preserving intraspecific variation emerges as vital for species’ abilities to adapt to and survive in future ocean conditions.

Diversity and conservation status of palms (Arecaceae) in two hotspots of biodiversity in Colombia and Ecuador

Societal Impact StatementPalms provide vital plant resources and ecosystem services to people across the tropics. To improve conservation guidance, a “health check” of palms in two highly threatened biodiversity hotspots in Colombia and Ecuador was undertaken. Palms are very diverse in these regions, but over one third are threatened with extinction now, especially among endemic species. Widespread and useful palms are also under intense human pressure and need to be prioritized in terms of sustainable management practices. Given the importance of palms for humans, inclusive conservation actions should be continued in both countries in order to safeguard this resource.Summary Palms provide central plant resources to societies in the tropics, especially in the Global South. The western Pacific and Andean regions of Colombia and Ecuador host two hotspots of biodiversity. To prioritize conservation policies towards palms, we undertook a conservation assessment of species in the region. We compiled a taxonomically verified database of specimens collected in both hotspots. We inferred preliminary conservation assessments using International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Criteria B. In addition, we evaluated the level of exposure of palms to human use and population density using the anthrome concept. We documented 144 native palm species in 33 genera occurring in both hotspots of Colombia and Ecuador. Of these, 55 are endemic to this region. We recorded 133 species for Colombia, 43 endemic, and 71 species for Ecuador, 9 endemic. A third of all palm species in the region are potentially threatened with extinction (50/144) and 12 as preliminary Critically Endangered. Aiphanes and Geonoma have the highest number of threatened species. In total, 60% of palm specimens were collected in the “low human impact” anthrome type. In contrast, 41% of specimens occur in high human density areas. The two hotspots of biodiversity in Colombia and Ecuador are very diverse in palms. However, we show that this diversity is under threat and is predominantly found in areas impacted by human activities. Extinction risk is highest in endemic species in both countries. Widespread and useful palm species also face threats linked to overexploitation or habitat loss. Inclusive conservation measures should be designed to conserve, together with communities, this plant resource.

The Impact of Sustainable Tourism on Resident and Visitor Satisfaction—The Case of the Special Nature Reserve “Titelski Breg”, Vojvodina

The Special Nature Reserve “Titelski Breg” (TB) is a protected area (PA) of category I, located in the AP of Vojvodina in the south-eastern part of Bačka. The reserve covers an area of 496 ha. A protection zone covering an area of 8643 ha has been established around the PA. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) states that this PA is classified as a category IV habitat and species management area. Its good geographical and traffic position and close distance to Romania and Hungary, as well as the nation’s major cities, make this PA accessible to a sizable number of both domestic and foreign tourists. There are numerous plant and animal species in the reserve, which makes this area unique. The population living around this reserve has an exceptional and valuable cultural heritage, which represents significant complementary tourist motives. To examine the state of sustainable tourism (SuT) in TB and the impact of SuT on the satisfaction of the respondents (SoR), the PoS model of study was used. The quantitative methodology in this research included a questionnaire as the survey instrument for residents and visitors. There were 630 respondents altogether (400 locals and 230 guests). Four aspects of sustainability, economic, social, cultural, and institutional, were used to analyze the state of SuT in this PA. The study’s findings show that SuT significantly affected the SoR. Analyzing the role that additional protected areas may have in SuT can be supported by the research outcomes. Additionally, the proportion of each sustainability characteristic in SuT can suggest guidelines for national programs that aim to develop PAs and tourist development at the same time.

Contributions of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems to risk-based design and management of protected and conserved areas in Africa.

Protected and conserved areas (PCAs) are key ecosystem management tools for conserving biodiversity and sustaining ecosystem services and social cobenefits. As countries adopt a 30% target for protection of land and sea under the Global Biodiversity Framework of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity, a critical question emerging is, which 30%? A risk-based answer to this question is that the 30% that returns the greatest reductions in risks of species extinction and ecosystem collapse should be protected. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List protocols provide practical methods for assessing these risks. All species, including humans, depend on the integrity of ecosystems for their well-being and survival. Africa is strategically important for ecosystem management due to convergence of high ecosystem diversity, intense pressures, and high levels of human dependency on nature. We reviewed the outcomes (e.g., applications of ecosystem red-list assessments to protected-area design, conservation planning, and management) of a symposium at the inaugural African Protected Areas Congress convened to discuss roles of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems in the design and management of PCAs. Recent progress was made in ecosystem assessment, with 920 ecosystem types assessed against the IUCN Red List criteria across 21 countries. Although these ecosystems spanned a diversity of environments across the continent, the greatest thematic gaps were for freshwater, marine, and subterranean realms, and large geographic gaps existed in North Africa and parts of West and East Africa. Assessment projects were implemented by a diverse community of government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and researchers. The assessments have influenced policy and management by informing extensions to and management of formal protected area networks supporting decision-making for sustainable development, and informing ecosystem conservation and threat abatement within boundaries of PCAs and in surrounding landscapes and seascapes. We recommend further integration of risk assessments in environmental policy and enhanced investment in ecosystem red-list assessment to fill current gaps.

Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions.

Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.

Chondrichthyes in the north-western Ionian Sea (central Mediterranean): Species diversity, abundance and spatio-temporal changes

This study provides an updated list of fish in the Class Chondrichthyes sampled during all research projects conducted in the north-western Ionian Sea from 1985 to 2020. A total of 36 Chondrichthyes species belonging to 8 orders and 19 families were detected, most of them distributed over a wide depth range, between shelf and slope. For species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 8 species are listed as Critically Endangered, 3 as Endangered, 6 Vulnerable and 5 as Near Threatened species. The distribution of cartilaginous fish was examined exploring the historical series of MEDITS data (1995–2020. Changes in the species diversity and in their abundance with time and space were detected and some environmental and anthropogenic drivers that could have caused these changes were analysed. An increase in the presence, number of species and biomass of Chondrichthyes was detected from 1995 to 2020. The GAM analyses seem to indicate that the observed increase in species number and biomass is due to the decrease in fishing capacity and increase in salinity and temperature on the bottom. Furthermore, for the most abundant species, Galeus melastomus, an increase of biomass, size and a deeper distribution over the last 26 years were detected. Significant changes in biomass were also observed for other abundant species in the study area (Scyliorhinus canicula and Raja miraletus). The increase in biomass over time, different from several Mediterranean observations, is discussed in relation to the presence of refuge areas in the north-western Ionian Sea.

DnaDot - fixing ecology and evolution’s blind spot, population size

To understand and manage any ecosystem, one of the most critical indicators is census population size (‘Nc’) for each component species. This is why the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) stipulates that it is ideal to know census size to an accuracy of ±10 % for each managed, endangered or exploited population. Knowledge of population size is also critical for: ecological studies in general; allowing biodiversity measures with low error margins; and assessing potential for evolutionary adaptation in long-term management. Unfortunately, despite their importance, all existing methods for estimating Nc have many difficulties, especially requiring independent knowledge or assumptions about demography, including: immigration, emigration, family size and its variance. As a result, even in the IUCN red list, many species are listed despite having unknown population size or trends. Therefore, we need an improved approach. This article introduces ‘DnaDot’, a strong new addition to our armory of census population size estimates, because it is an accurate estimate, with few assumptions. DnaDot is based on mark-release-recapture, but instead of marking, uses pre-existing polymorphisms to divide the population into separate groups. The method uses one sample, minimizing effort, uses no demographic assumptions or data, and does not require genotyping to be accurate enough to identify individuals and kin, which is problematic for other genetic methods especially when degraded field samples are used. DnaDot applies to any kind of variants, from tissue samples, or from noninvasive samples such as hair provided that the researcher can identify species-identity and variants within the species. DnaDot outperformed close competitors on minimal assumptions, and good detectability of marks. Also, in simulations of a wide range of scenarios, DnaDot had superior accuracy and precision, usually meeting the IUCN criterion of ±10 %, which competing methods rarely achieved. Finally, one other method is said to need smaller sample sizes than DnaDot, but only if that method is not required to meet the performance criteria of DnaDot.

Identification of low levels of neutral and functional genetic diversity in South African bontebok (Damaliscus pygargus pygargus).

Bontebok (Damaliscus pygargus pygargus) and blesbok (D. p. phillipsi) are classified as separate sub-species. The blesbok has a widespread distribution throughout South Africa and is listed as least concern by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. Bontebok on the other hand is endemic within the Cape Floristic Region of the Western Cape in South Africa and has been listed as near-threatened species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Bontebok populations experienced a severe bottleneck and were brought back from the brink of extinction in the 1830s. Currently, the subspecies is threatened by hybridisation with blesbok resulting in fertile offspring. To date, molecular investigations using neutral markers have determined that genetic diversity in pure South African bontebok was significantly lower than in pure blesbok. Here, we investigated genetic diversity in bontebok, blesbok and hybrid individuals using microsatellites and an adaptive marker (toll-like receptor two (TLR2)). The study of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) revealed five mutations in TLR2 in different individuals and subspecies of D. pygargus. This included three non-synonymous and two synonymous mutations. The three amino acid substitution mutations were predicted to have no effect on protein function. Two of the five mutations, one of which resulted in an amino acid substitution, were not present in bontebok. The other three mutations were present to varying frequencies in the three groups. We confirm low adaptive and neutral diversity in bontebok. These mutations provide insights into the genetic diversity and relationships among the two sub-species of D. pygargus and may have implications for their conservation and management.

[Resources and utilization of medicinal plants in countries and regions involved in "the Belt and Road" Initiative].

The protection, development, and utilization of medicinal plant resources are important cornerstones of maintaining human health. However, due to factors such as the reduction of high-quality land resources, deterioration of ecological environments, and excessive and disorderly resource development, medicinal plant resources are becoming scarce, and some of them are insufficiently supplied. With the proposal of "the Belt and Road" Initiative, the cooperation between China and "the Belt and Road" partners(the countries and regions involved in "the Belt and Road" Initiative)is increasingly close, which provides a new opportunity for carrying out trade of medicinal plant resources and alleviating the problem of imbalance and relative inadequacy of medicinal plant resources in countries. This study first determined the distribution and species information of plant resources in countries and regions involved in "the Belt and Road" Initiative by investigating the database of plant distribution and that of medicinal plant resources. Then, according to the published data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN) and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora(CITES), this study identified the rare and endangered medicinal plants and the medicinal plants under trade control in countries and regions involved in "the Belt and Road" Initiative and finally sorted out the list of potential medicinal plant resources in countries and regions involved in "the Belt and Road" Initiative that can be used by China. This data resource can not only be used for the overall protection of important endangered species but also scientifically guide the development and utilization of medicinal resources, providing guidance and a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of medicinal plant resources in countries and regions involved in "the Belt and Road" Initiative.

Threatened chronotopes: can chronobiology help endangered species?

Pittendrigh and Daan's 1976 article "Pacemaker structure: A clock for all seasons" marks the foundation of modern seasonal chronobiology. It proposed the internal coincidence model comprised of a Morning (M) and Evening (E) oscillator, which are coupled but synchronized separately by dawn and dusk. It has become an attractive model to explain the seasonal adaptation of circadian rhythms. Using the example of the European hamster, this article connects the classical entrainment concept to species decline and, ultimately, conservation concepts. Seasonality of this species is well studied and circannual rhythms have been described in at least 32 parameters. The European hamster is listed as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list. Changes in the temporal structure of the environment (the chronotope) caused by climate change and light pollution might be responsible for the global decline. The article shows that classical chronobiological concepts such as the internal coincidence model (Pittendrigh and Daan Pittendrigh and Daan, J Comp Physiol [a] 106:333-355, 1976) are helpful to understand the (chronobiological) causes of the decline and can potentially support species conservation. Knowing the species' physiological limitations as well as its adaptation capacities can potentially prevent its extinction at a time when classical conservation concepts have reached their limits.

Ecology of The Giant Armadillo in The Cerrado Mineiro, In the Southeast Region of Brazil

Objective: Identify and georeference burrows, qualify the soil and predominant vegetation where the giant armadillo lives, in the Cerrado of Triângulo Mineiro.
  
 Method/design/approach: The study was carried out on nine properties in the municipality of Uberaba, MG and one in Uberlândia, MG, covering a total area of 240.8 km2. Burrows with more than 1.0 m deep were adopted as a standard, all of which were georeferenced, for the construction of maps, measurement of areas, definition of phytophysiognomies, determination of distance traveled and spatial distribution of the animal in the region. To record the presence of the animal, 9 photographic cameras were installed in the area, at a height of 0.40 m. Soil samples were collected in 20 locations for chemical analysis at depths of 0-0.20, 0.20-0.40 and 0.40-0.60 m, with 4 replications. A descriptive analysis of the data was carried out using Agroestat Software.
  
 Result and conclusion: The 81 burrows were georeferenced, 41 of them in the Vale Encantado - Private Natural Heritage Reserve (VE-PNHR), where there was a 51% increase in the total number of burrows, with the majority in the Cerrado stricto sensu (41%) and Cerradão (23 %); The animal has a strictly nocturnal habit, with around 96% of activity between 8 pm and 6 am; The animal prefers acidic soils, with low fertility and sandy texture, as these are the places where they find the most food; Around 97% of burrows were recorded at altitudes above 800 meters.
  
 Research implications: In 70% of the areas where the animal's presence was recorded, it has a total area of less than 10 km2, indicating that the animal can survive in areas smaller than those already described in the literature. The fact that 75% of the burrows recorded in the study are considered ancient remains, and the species may no longer inhabit some of the areas studied, confirms the existence of a low density of the species in these evaluated areas of the Minas Gerais cerrado.
  
 Originality/value: The Giant armadillo is one of the large animals in the Brazilian cerrado and is classified as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Knowing the importance of the species for the biodiversity of the cerrado, it is expected that the results generated in this study can help in the formulation of public policies to preserve the species.

Geoconservation at the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

This work describes the achievements made towards geoconservation within the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) from the 1990s onwards. The key milestones in the recognition of geoconservation within the IUCN are presented. Initially, the IUCN's geoconservation efforts were focused on refining the criteria for World Heritage (WH) designation. Subsequently, the actions focused on spreading the geoconservation framework within the IUCN World Conservation Congresses (WCCs), the establishment of an expert group on geoconservation within the IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas (IUCN-WCPA) and the publication of guidelines for geoconservation. We describe how the inclusion within the IUCN membership of three organizations—two of them Spanish: The Geological Society of Spain (SGE) and the Society for the Defence of Geological and Mining Heritage (SEDPGYM); and one international, ProGEO—has been a key factor. These organizations have achieved the adoption of resolutions in which geoconservation, its vision, its principles and its definitions have been taken into account in the IUCN WCC (2008–2020 period), and have promoted the geoconservation conceptual framework among nature conservationists. We also analyse the progress made and offer a series of recommendations to improve geoconservation in the future adopting a more integrated approach to nature conservation within the IUCN. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue ‘Geodiversity for science and society’.

Toward a predictable cask theory of species extinction assessment in the Anthropocene

Predicting species extinction is challenging in the context of climate change. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species assesses species extinction risk by accounting for population size and global range of taxa, but this approach neglects the importance of genetic variability. Here, we propose a life strategy index (LSI) for predicting the extinction risks of species under climate change. The LSI is composed of three fundamental and independent components: namely, evolutionary potential, ecological potential, and colonization potential. The LSI constitutes a so‐called “cask” theory of species extinction, which predicts that extinction likelihood is determined by the relative deficiency of any of the three components. The indicative variables used to construct the proposed LSI make the index applicable to assessments of (and predictions for) the extinction risk of different taxa in the face of climate change, which can inform management and conservation of imperiled species in a more scientific and precise manner.

A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.

Trophic niche patterns of endangered Sandelia bainsii and Amatolacypris trevelyani in the Eastern Cape, South Africa: Insights from stable isotope analysis

Abstract Despite supporting a disproportionately large fraction of the global biodiversity, freshwater ecosystems are ranked as the most highly threatened habitats ahead of both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Furthermore, many regions are still characterized by limited knowledge on taxonomy and ecology of freshwater fishes. The need for ecological information in understudied regions is important particularly where there are recent discoveries of new species and unique lineages and for threatened and endangered taxa that require conservation management. This study evaluated the trophic ecology of two freshwater fish species Sandelia bainsii and Amatolacypris trevelyani that are both classified as endangered in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. These two species, which are narrow‐range endemics in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, comprise allopatric lineages whose ecology is poorly known. This study used stable isotope analysis to evaluate the food web patterns, explore the trophic niche dynamics and estimate the prey source contributions for the two species in different headwater habitats. The fishes isotopic niche sizes were spatially variable, suggesting the likely importance of stochastic variation in resource availability and probable interspecific interactions. The three lineages within S. bainsii exhibited low isotopic niche overlap onto those of sympatric fishes in most habitats. Isotopic mixing model revealed that these lineages' diets were mostly dominated by gatherers/collectors. In comparison, the two lineages within A. trevelyani exhibited high niche overlap with other species and generally had variable diets. Despite the low and high niche overlap patterns of S. bainsii and A. trevelyani, respectively, the isotopic niche overlap patterns of co‐occurring species onto those of the former suggest the likely lack of competitive hierarchies. The trophic niche patterns of these two endangered species helped to shed some light on the potential invasion risks by non‐piscivorous fishes with opportunistic feeding habits, which could exert competitive interspecific interactions.